Crystal Ball Gazing: Global LGBTQ+ rights and culture in 2024
Which developments, movies, series and books to expect in the New Year
Happy New Year, and welcome to the first 2024 issue of "Fabrice Houdart | A weekly newsletter on LGBTQ+ Equality."
As a self-proclaimed modern-age Nostradamus, I am back with my crystal ball gazing for the new year 🌐🔮. In 2023, my predictions were wrong many times, but I am confident my skills have improved (I sent you a summary of what happened last week). Here are some expected and unexpected developments to look out for in 2024 and some cultural items to kill time until the U.S. elections are over. It is not comprehensive but I did my best.
Global Developments
Paris 2024 Olympics (Jul 26 – Aug 11) 🇫🇷. The Olympics are an excellent opportunity to showcase LGBTQ+ people in elite athleticism. This year, controversial restrictions for trans athletes will spark debates about fairness and inclusion in sports. See this article on NBC:
“Heading into 2024, there has been a seismic shift in the sporting landscape for trans athletes with the pendulum swinging back towards tighter measures…”
Latin America and the Caribbean: on the move
Carribeans 🏝️ : Expect decriminalization in Dominica, Grenada, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines. (See the 76 Crimes analysis of regional developments in 2023) which could bring the number of countries criminalizing same-sex relationships below the tally of UN Member States retaining criminalizing below the 60 countries bar (currently, it stands at 63).
Mexico's Political Landscape🇲🇽: The election (June 2nd) may result in Claudia Sheinbaum or Xóchitl Gálvez becoming Mexico's first female president. The discussion on violence against LGBTQ+ people will pick up in the aftermath of Jesús Ociel Baena’s death.
Conservatism 🔄 in Guatemala, El Salvador, and Argentina won’t make for a pleasant year.
Asia. 🏯 Slow progress. Thailand will be the great winner with marriage equality. India may see progress in state-level rights for same-sex couples, particularly in Tamil Nadu. Japan will continue deliberating on same-sex marriage, possibly reaching the Supreme Court. No ease in the Chinese context is to be expected.
Africa. 🌍 The new battleground. 2024 will be a mixed bag, reflecting the continent's diverse socio-political landscape and the contagion from the Ugandan debacle. Anti-LGBTQ+ rhetoric will persist in places like Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia, and Ghana:
Namibia: The High Court might decriminalize gay sex, with a decision expected on May 17, 2024, coinciding with the International Day Against Homophobia and Transphobia.
Uganda: The year started horribly with Steven Kabuye getting stabbed this morning. He remains in critical condition. I expect the verdict on the Anti-Homosexuality Act to be favorable despite the damage of AHA being irreversible.
Burundi: It’s going to be a long year; the President just declared that gay people should be stoned.
I think that if we find these kinds of people in Burundi, it is better to take them to a stadium and stone them. That’s what they deserve.
Europe and the UK. More same-sex marriage 💍💒 . Liechtenstein (the staunchly anti-LGBTQ+ Archbishop resigned this year) will likely legalize same-sex marriage in 2024. Depending on political dynamics and court rulings, Greece, Cyprus, and Czechia might follow suit. Look at this map of same-sex marriage worldwide. 🗳️Critical elections: trans rights will be further weaponized in the next UK general election, expected in 2024 (the date has to be set; Brits are weird). The potential victory of the Labour Party could mean some tone-down of anti-trans rhetoric. Elections in Ireland, Austria, Portugal, and Lithuania will also be pivotal in shaping LGBTQ+ policies (here is a full list of 2024 elections worldwide). Poland, now a Law and Justice Party (PiS)-free zone, is likely to introduce a civil union bill and roll back anti-LGBTQ+ laws.
The Vatican 🇻🇦. An unprecedented revolt. The Vatican's 'Fiducia supplicans' document, allowing priests to bless same-sex couples, will continue to spark significant debate. It will represent a threat to the African Church's unity.
U.N. Efforts Strengthen 🇺🇳. With growing international support and the debut of UN Independent Expert Graeme Reid, I anticipate the United Nations to be more vocal about LGBTQ+ rights globally and maybe pass a resolution.
US Developments
2024 elections 🇺🇸. This will ruin the year for all of us, but you know that. (check out PinkNews’ review of the Presidential candidates’ stance on LGBTQ+ issues). Think of stopping reading the news until November 5th. The silver lining is that LGBTQ+ representation will reach an all-time high, and Delaware State Senator Sarah McBride will become the first transgender person elected to Congress.
Biden vs. Trump, who will be elected? 🗳️. If I were a good wizard, I’d tell you who would win. Instead, I will predict what will happen if Trump is elected. Domestically, I foresee severe repression, dismantling of civil service protections, a compromised judiciary, corrupt administration, misuse of law enforcement, media suppression, and heightened risks for minorities, undocumented immigrants, and transgender individuals. Globally, the collapse of NATO, Ukraine falling to Russia, the rise of right-wing factions in Europe with Putin's support, China's aggression towards Taiwan, and Russia's threatening Finland. Good times. Google Oiseau de mauvause augure.
Laws Affecting LGBTQ+ Youth ⚖️. Several laws are expected to take effect in 2024, especially concerning transgender care for minors(21 states now have a ban on gender-affirming care), and expect more to be passed.
California 🐻. There will be a referendum on the ballot to remove Prop 8 - the same-sex marriage ban I demonstrated against in my youth - from the constitution.
The Gay Business
DEI will thrive 📈 . Despite wishful media coverage on the “end of DEI,” more global corporations will actively support LGBTQ+ rights through policies and initiatives, recognizing the importance of attracting talent for their bottom line.
Companies will show up for Pride 🏳️🌈. Many companies will likely double down on their support for Pride in 2024. That is the lesson of the 2018 Nike/Kaepernick campaign: controversies over social justice issues are lucrative. Brands supporting the LGBTQ+ community will play the long game.
But they will cave into backlash and resistance in the political arena 🚫. U.S. companies have stopped taking public stances on hateful legislation and will continue to keep a low profile in this election year.
The Semi-cultural desk
Every year, my resolutions involved watching less TV and reading more books. And every year, I fail. This year won’t be different, although I am not sure how a year without White Lotus and Succession can be satisfying:
🎥 LGBTQ+ Movies I have watched all the 2024 queer trailers for you, and here are my favorites:
Norwegian Dream: A Polish immigrant in Norway grapples with feelings for a colleague involved in vogue and drag.
All of Us Strangers (already playing at Angelika). Looks amazing, gay romance, which I mentioned before.
Mean Girls: released January 17th. That seems risky, but I am here for it. It's a modern twist on the classic, navigating high school's social hierarchies and personal identities.
On Swift Horses: Jacob Elordi and Daisy Edgar-Jones are screen pals in this book adaptation.
Fireworks: I told you about it before; it’s Stranizza d’Amuri—a summer romance between two boys in Sicilian heat, facing societal challenges.
Housekeeping For Beginners: I could cry for the story of an unconventional family's struggle to stay together amid differences.
Frida (premiering at Sundance): The Life of Frida Khalo.
Madame Web: A Marvel thriller about a clairvoyant paramedic entangled with destinies in Manhattan.
Lie With Me (French): I will cry for that one, too. A novelist revisits his hometown, stirring memories of a past love and its lasting impact.
Drive-Away Dolls: Sounds fun. It is a comedic road trip adventure involving two friends and a group of criminals.
'Queer' (no trailer): the adaptation of the Book by Luca Guadagnino.
Femme: A drag artist's journey of trauma and revenge after a brutal attack.
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga: Furiosa's journey through dystopian landscapes.
Joker: Folie a Deux: Lady Gaga plays the Joker’s bisexual love interest.
Wicked: The much-anticipated film adaptation of the popular musical.
📺 Streaming:
Good Grief (Netflix, January 5th): Marc navigates life after his husband's death, leading to a soul-searching trip to Paris.
Queer Eye season 8 on Netflix on Jan 24th. I’ll pass, but you go ahead.
The White Lotus Third season, taking place in Thailand, is delayed until 2025.
📚 Top LGBTQ+ Books of 2024:
Tomorrow Will Be Different by Sarah McBride: this came out in 2019, but given she will be a 2024 topic, it’s worth a read.
Fluid by Harris Reed: A journey through Reed's gender-fluid lens in the fashion industry.
The House of Hidden Meanings by RuPaul (March 5) RuPaul narrates his life's journey, beginning with his humble childhood in San Diego and achieving worldwide fame.
Here We Go Again by Allison Cochrun is a cross-country road trip reuniting former childhood friends.
Who's Afraid of Gender? by Judith Butler (March 19)
A Good Happy Girl by Marissa Higgins: A young woman's complex relationship with a lesbian couple.
Come Together: The Science (and Art!) of Creating Lasting Sexual Connections (January 30): not specifically LGBTQ+, but I still think you should read it.
Queer Power Couples by Hannah Murphy Winter & Billie Winter: Real stories of LGBTQ+ power couples and their journeys.
The Guncle Abroad by Steven Rowley is the sequel to "The Guncle," featuring a family adventure in Italy.
A Great Gay Book by Ryan Fitzgibbon: A collection of essays, interviews, and art from LGBTQ+ creatives.
The Gay Agenda
🇸🇬 February 17th-25th, Singapore. I will use the Outright’s Board meeting as an opportunity to visit the city and its vibrant LGBTQ+ civil society.
🪙 April 25-27, New York: Design on A Dime, my favorite NYC charity event.
👩❤️👩 April 26th: International Lesbian Visibility Day.
🏳️⚧️ March 31st: International Transgender Day of Visibility.
🏳️🌈 May 17th: International Day Against Homophobia, Transphobia, and Biphobia (May 17).
🏛️ June 24-29: Grand opening of the Stonewall National Monument Visitor Center (SNMVC).
🤝October: New York Summit of the Association of LGBTQ+ Corporate Directors
🌈November 11-15, Cape Town. I will attend the ILGA World Conference.
My crystal ball might be quirky, but my commitment to keeping you abreast of developments in 2024 remains steadfast. 💫✨I look forward to seeing you this year every Wednesday at noon directly in your inbox! 📲
Erratum: In the previous issue, I discussed the "Deloitte Global LGBT+ Inclusion @ Work study." I would like to clarify that this study surveyed 5,474 non-Deloitte LGBT+ individuals working in various sectors and not Deloitte's own employees. I apologize for any confusion caused by my initial presentation of this information.